News 12 Long Island Weather Extra
-
WEATHER UPDATE MONDAY DECEMBER 14TH BY METEOROLOGIST RICH HOFFMAN AT 1030AM.A little recap of the warm weather -
Here is a list of the NEW RECORD HIGHSThursday Dec. 10th 58 set
in 2012 -- New 61
Friday Dec. 11th 57 set in 2006 – New 59
Saturday Dec. 12th 60 set in 2008 -- New 68
Sunday Dec. 13th 60 set in 1990 – New 68
Monday Dec. 14th 58 set in 2001 – Forecast 62
Tuesday Dec 15th
59 set in 2008 -- Forecast 59It has been very warm this December, temperatures are 9.4 degrees above normal. December 14th Normal Average High is 44 and Normal Average Low is 28 degrees.
TONIGHT:
Cloudy Skies with periods of rain. A few thunderstorms possible. Windy. Winds
South/Southwest shifting to the west by morning 10 to 20 mph. Lows near 53.
Normal Average Low is 28.TUESDAY:
Sun and Clouds to Mostly Sunny. Warm and Windy. Winds West-Northwest 15 to 25
with gusts to 40 mph. Highs near 60. Record High is 59 set in 2008.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with lows near 40.WEDNESDAY:
Mostly Sunny Skies. Highs near 53.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows near 42.THURSDAY:
Mostly Cloudy skies. Scattered showers. Highs 52 to 57.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain. Lows near 40.FRIDAY:
Mostly Cloudy to Partly Sunny Skies. A few showers in the morning. Cooler.
Highs 46 to 52.
As cold front and storm passes to the East On Friday - A shot of December like cold finally moves in over Long Island.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and colder. Lows 30 to 35.SATURDAY:
Mostly Sunny. Cold. Highs 42 to 45.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear and cold. Lows near 29.
Dry and Sunny on Saturday with a Northwest wind flow will bring in the chilly air.
Below maps shows temperatures at 1pm on Saturday.
SUNDAY:
Mostly Sunny Skies. Highs 42 to 45.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear and cold. Lows 27 to 34.
High Pressure Keeps the northeast Dry on Sunday.Below map shows temperatures at 1pm on Sunday. Seasonable Temperatures. Highs in the 40s.
Long Range for a White Christmas does not look good.
Here is forecast temperature map from the 6z GFS weather model. Record High is 56 set in 1994. IF THE MAP ENDS UP BEING CORRECT IT WOULD SHOW RECORD HIGHS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
-
Update by Meteorologist Rich Hoffman December 16th 2015 at 8am.
What about a White
Christmas?
The Last one we had was December 2013. We had 1.7" of
snow December 24th 2013. On the ground
at 7am December 25th 2013 we had 1" of snow on the ground and that
qualifies for a White Christmas. We have
about a 20 to 25% chance of a white Christmas each year. Unless we see a big pattern change by Christmas - It is
not looking good for this year.Did you know? December 2014
Temperatures, 4 degrees above normal and
it was 60 Degrees on Christmas Eve, which was a Record High. It was 56 degrees on Christmas Day, which tied a record
high. We had a huge weather pattern change in
January and it turned cold and stormy which lead to a lot of snow. I am not saying it will be as cold and snowy as last
winter but be prepared for colder weather and snow in the New Year.
The below Map shows Climatological averages for a White Christmas. Long Island/NYC 20-25% Chance.
So what is happening this LATE FALL - Remember it is NOT WINTER YET - Winter 2015/2016 -- December 21st 11:48pm E.S.T to March 20th 6:44pm E.D.T.
We are in a very strong El-Nino Phase and I do see a change in 2016.
Read more here on El-Nino
- http://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/el-nino-la-nina-enso
El-Nino is the warming of the Pacific Ocean and it
can impact the weather patterns in the United States - Long Island is thousands
of miles away from the warm ocean source that one little shift and we can get a
major Nor'easter and heavy snow. As of the
End of November El-Nino was in a very strong warm phase - hence why the East
Coast has been warm.The above weather Map show the weather pattern the last 2 months - High Pressure along the east Coast and Strong Ridge, and a trough and Low Pressure in the West.
High pressure ( highs-Blue H on weather Map) wind flow is Clock wise. This allows for warm southerly winds to bring warm air from the Gulf of Mexico into the Northeast.The overall weather pattern will stay warm through the end of the year with a Ridge in the East and Trough in the West. The below map shows the Temperature outlook from December 23 to 29th. Warm air and more record highs possible to end 2015.
So what about CHRISTMAS 2015?
I think with the current pattern we are looking at a 1% chance of a White Christmas - we would need a Christmas Miracle.
Below are Forecast Computer Models from the GFS American Model and the ECMWF Europen Model for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Remember last year we hit 60 and set a record on Christmas Eve and 56 on Christmas Day tied a record high.
GFS Model Christmas Eve shows a storm moving over Long Island with rain and temperatures in the 50s and 60s. New Record High is Possible. GFS forecast 60 at Islip December 24th.
ECMWF European Model for Christmas Eve - Warm Weather, rain showers and High in the 50s and 60s. Look at the maps below and look at that warm air .
Weather Maps for Christmas Day -
GFS shows cold front moving past Long Island - Gusty winds, drier and still mild.
ECMWF Forecast for CHRISTMAS DAY - Drier Conditions as Storm moves east but another storm could arrive on 26th into 27th with rain.
50s and 60s. Record High is 56. We could break it.
So does the Weather Change -- In 2016El-Nino is forecast to weaken
in 2016, which would lead to a change in the weather pattern. That is when we can get our cold and snow. Does this big shift happen in January or Late February?
The later it happens the less cold and snow.
As of now, I see that happening towards Mid January - I see some storms around
17th to 25th, February 4 to 10th and February 22 to 28th. I see some very cold weather but not prolonged as last
year. From December to March, I think our
temperatures will be Near Normal to above normal and Snowfall near Normal or
Below. I would plan for 15 to 25 inches. The problem is, one Nor'easter can drop 10 to 20
inches and mess up the seasonal snow forecast.
Below are typical Snow Totals for winter.
-
Update by Meteorologist Matt Hammer December 19th 2015 at 11am
Morning sunshine at the studios in Woodbury...
A mix of sun and clouds in Riverhead...1 of 2
So, first thing's first. We've been very lucky (if you like warm weather) over the past few weeks with all of the unseasonable warmth and record shattering temperatures at times. Well, today, if you would rather a more winter-like feel - you're in luck!
Temperatures this morning started off in the 30's and around 11AM this morning were in the upper 30's and around 40 degrees. (see below)
If we look at where our normal temperatures are usually for this time of the year - you'll notice that our normal (average) high is 43. So really, we aren't too far from that and our projected hyper-local afternoon high at Islip and much of LI is right at 42. That being said, we've just been spoiled with the warmer weather and that in and of itself will make it FEEL very cold.
However, there is another factor at play today that is aiding in a more cold, winter feel: THE WIND! Check out some recent wind gusts below...
Expect that biting West to West-Northwest wind to be with us through tonight...
That makes it feel like this outside today:
It's going to be a dry day too. If you see the picture below, you can see some blue shadings north and west of Long Island. Those are some flurries and snow showers that are trying to head towards the Hudson Valley and Long Island, but the air over LI is overall dry. So, it will be difficult for any of these snow showers and flurries to survive today, but we are still leaving in just the slight chance for a passing festive flurry or two this afternoon.
So, BUNDLE up if you're heading out today and even moreso tonight when we'll see wind chills in the TEENS in spots across Long Island.
As we head towards the Christmas holiday - a few things to talk about on the 7 day. The first, most noticeable thing is that this colder, more seasonable air is NOT here to stay right now. It will be slightly above average tomorrow with sunshine and less wind, so not nearly as cold as today. By Monday, the official start of Winter (11:48PM), we will be back in the 50's!
There will be the chance of a shower Tuesday and early Thursday, but the best chance for showers this week looks to be Wednesday. By Christmas Eve...it's back to feeling like SPRING with highs in the mid 60's!
Christmas Day looks dry and cooler with temps falling through the day, but still above seasonal averages...
Hope you all have a great weekend - I am off for the next couple of days after today.
- Matt
-
UPDATE BY METEOROLOGIST RICH HOFFMAN 10:30am Tuesday December 22nd.
it's winter and since I am a snow lover, it saddens me to write about the record highs. I guess if we are going to have them we should enjoy them.
Record Highs
December 22nd 59 set in 2011 Forecast 59
December 23rd 59 set in 2006 Forecast 60
December 24th 60 set in 2014 Forecast 67
December 25th 56 set in 1994 & 2014 Forecast 60
Parts of Long Island and NYC will be in the low 70s on Thursday. We will not reach are all time December high, which is 77 set December 7th 1998.I know a lot of us are Dreaming of a WHITE CHRISTMAS for Long Island - it will not happen this year. Most of the North East will not have snow on the ground come Friday.
Here are two weather models showing snowfall through Tuesday the 29th. Most of this snow will actually fall Monday into Tuesday.
TODAY: Happy 1st day of Winter. Cloudy Skies with Scattered Showers. Warm. Winds South-Southwest 5 to 15 mph. Highs near 59. Record High is 59 set in 2011. Sunset: 4:29pm.
TONIGHT: Mostly Cloudy. Some spotty drizzle and Fog. Winds West-Northwest 5 to 10 mph. Lows near 48. Normal Average Low is 26.
TOMORROW: Cloudy and Warm. Periods of Rain. Winds East-Southeast 10 to 15 mph. Highs near 60. Record High is 59 set in 2006. Overnight will be cloudy with some scattered showers. Drizzle and Fog. Lows 53 to 58.
THURSDAY: CHRISTMAS EVE. Mostly Cloudy with a few spotty showers. Very Warm. Highs near 67. Upper 60s to low 70s for Western Nassau County into NYC. Record High is 60 set in 2014.
MIDNIGHT MAP BELOW - Temperatures in the 50s ( MERRY CHRISTMAS ) Partly Cloudy to mostly Cloudy, Chance of a shower.
Overnight will be mostly cloudy, chance for some showers, drizzle and Fog. Some clearing towards morning. Lows around 55.
FRIDAY: MERRY CHRISTMAS - CHRISTMAS DAY. Sunshine giving way to afternoon clouds. Chance of showers towards evening. Warm. Highs 55 to 60. Record High is 56 set in 1994 & 2014.
HAPPY KWANZAA WHICH STARTS SATURDAY DECEMBER 26TH THROUGH JANUARY 1ST.TODAY: Happy 1st day of Winter. Cloudy Skies with Scattered Showers. Warm. Winds South-Southwest 5 to 15 mph. Highs near 59. Record High is 59 set in 2011. Sunset: 4:29pm.
TONIGHT: Mostly Cloudy. Some spotty drizzle and Fog. Winds West-Northwest 5 to 10 mph. Lows near 48. Normal Average Low is 26.
TOMORROW: Cloudy and Warm. Periods of Rain. Winds East-Southeast 10 to 15 mph. Highs near 60. Record High is 59 set in 2006. Overnight will be cloudy with some scattered showers. Drizzle and Fog. Lows 53 to 58.
THURSDAY: CHRISTMAS EVE. Mostly Cloudy with a few spotty showers. Very Warm. Highs near 67. Upper 60s to low 70s for Western Nassau County into NYC. Record High is 60 set in 2014.
MIDNIGHT MAP BELOW - Temperatures in the 50s ( MERRY CHRISTMAS ) Partly Cloudy to mostly Cloudy, Chance of a shower.Overnight will be mostly cloudy, chance for some showers, drizzle and Fog. Some clearing towards morning. Lows around 55.
FRIDAY: MERRY CHRISTMAS - CHRISTMAS DAY. Sunshine giving way to afternoon clouds. Chance of showers towards evening. Warm. Highs 55 to 60. Record High is 56 set in 1994 & 2014.
HAPPY KWANZAA WHICH STARTS STARTURDAY DECEMBER 26TH THROUGH JANUARY 1ST.
http://www.officialkwanzaawebsite.org/index.shtml">https://images.scribblelive.com/2015/12/22/ad86a8ac-5834-4e55-b757-1a0ed42c741b_500.png">TODAY: Happy 1st day of Winter. Cloudy Skies with Scattered Showers. Warm. Winds South-Southwest 5 to 15 mph. Highs near 59. Record High is 59 set in 2011. Sunset: 4:29pm.
TONIGHT: Mostly Cloudy. Some spotty drizzle and Fog. Winds West-Northwest 5 to 10 mph. Lows near 48. Normal Average Low is 26.
TOMORROW: Cloudy and Warm. Periods of Rain. Winds East-Southeast 10 to 15 mph. Highs near 60. Record High is 59 set in 2006. Overnight will be cloudy with some scattered showers. Drizzle and Fog. Lows 53 to 58.
THURSDAY: CHRISTMAS EVE. Mostly Cloudy with a few spotty showers. Very Warm. Highs near 67. Upper 60s to low 70s for Western Nassau County into NYC. Record High is 60 set in 2014.
MIDNIGHT MAP BELOW - Temperatures in the 50s ( MERRY CHRISTMAS ) Partly Cloudy to mostly Cloudy, Chance of a shower.Overnight will be mostly cloudy, chance for some showers, drizzle and Fog. Some clearing towards morning. Lows around 55.
FRIDAY: MERRY CHRISTMAS - CHRISTMAS DAY. Sunshine giving way to afternoon clouds. Chance of showers towards evening. Warm. Highs 55 to 60. Record High is 56 set in 1994 & 2014.
HAPPY KWANZAA WHICH STARTS STARTURDAY DECEMBER 26TH THROUGH JANUARY 1ST.
http://www.officialkwanzaawebsite.org/index.shtmlSATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few light showers or sprinkles. Highs near 49. Lows near 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few light showers or sprinkles. Highs near 55. Lows near 37.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs near 47. Lows near 40.
STAY TUNED TO THIS PAGE LATTER THIS WEEK I WILL TAKE ABOUT THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION - IT WILL CHANGE FROM POSTIVE TO NEGATIVE INTO IN TO THE NEW YEAR.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS AND MERRY CHRISTMAS, HAPPY KWANZAA -
UPDATE BY METEOROLOGIST MATT HAMMER 10:00AM SATURDAY DECEMBER 26, 2015WEATHER HISTORY: On this date on Long Island in 2010 we saw 12-20" of snow, wind gusts over 65 mph, many travel problems and beach erosion on the East End. Quite a difference from today and what we've seen so far this fall and winter!
Clouds over Woodbury Saturday morning...
Clouds over Riverhead Saturday morning...
1 of 3
TODAY: The warm winter weather continues...
I hope everyone who celebrated Christmas yesterday like I did had a great day! Of course I hope everyone else did as well too :)
We, yet again, set a new record high today...and it happened around 1:00AM! 57 degrees was recorded at Islip shortly after midnight this morning. That breaks a previous record of 54 set back in 2006.
So, will we ever see NORMAL winter temperatures again?! We'll get to that...
Let's talk about the rest of today's weather first. Those cloudy skies are here to stay through today and you will want to keep an umbrella with you. Take a look at the "futurecast" images below. We will have the chance for a few spotty showers today, a round of steadier rain overnight and the chance for another round of showers towards Sunday evening. To advance the next futurecast graphic, just click the arrow to the right...
TODAY 6PM: Cloudy with a spot shower around...
OVERNIGHT: Steadier rain after midnight...ending Sunday morning...
Dry mid-day Sunday with some breaks of sun...
Another round of rain through Sunday evening...1 of 4
So today - mainly cloudy with the chance for a spot shower or two:
Tonight - steadier rain moves in overnight into early Sunday morning with some areas of fog possible...
Over the next 7 days...Look at tomorrow's high temps! 65 degrees for our hyper-local high and that will shatter a previous record of 58 degrees set back in 2011. Expect an early round of showers, dry mid-day, then another evening round of showers on Sunday.
Colder on Monday with rain arriving again for Tuesday. Near 50 for Wednesday and Thursday. As we ring in the new year on Friday we will be back in the 40's again and it looks like January will feature temperatures at least closer to seasonal normal highs.
Have a great day!
-
UPDATE BY METEOROLOGIST RICH HOFFMAN NOON ON Wednesday DECEMBER 30THTONIGHT: Cloudy skies. Rain showers with Patchy Fog. Winds East Shifting to Northwest 5 to 10 mph. Lows near 42. Normal Low is 24.TOMORROW: Sun and Clouds to Mostly Sunny skies. Mild. Highs near 50. Winds North-Northwest 5 to 15 mph.
Dry and Mild Conditions to wrap up 2015. Normal High is 40. Sunset 4:35pmNew Year's Eve Forecast. 8pm: Partly Cloudy Temperatures near 42. Midnight: Happy New year. Partly Cloudy, winds Northwest 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures near 38, will feel like 32 degrees. Partly Cloudy skies towards morning with lows 30 to 35.
FRIDAY: HAPPY NEW YEAR. Sun and clouds to mostly sunny. A little breezy. Chilly. Highs near 43.
Friday Night: Clear Skies and Cold. Lows near 29.
SATURDAY: Mostly Sunny. Highs near 42. Overnight will be clear and cold. Lows 25 to 30.SUNDAY: Mostly Sunny. Highs near 42.
SUNDAY NIGHT: clear and cold Lows 25 to 30.MONDAY: Back to School and work. Temperatures in the morning will be in the 20s under clear skies. Mostly Sunny Skies. Cold. Highs 37 to 40.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear and cold. Lows 22 to 27.TUESDAY: Sun and Clouds. Chilly. Highs near 40.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27 to 32.
yes it will be colder for the start of the new year but if the numbers hold in the 7 day forecast, average temperatures will actually be normal to above normal. Normal Average High temperature is 40 and low 24. So look at the above image - if you look at the highs and lows and take average of each day - numbers are above normal.The below image is from the GFS model, You can see besides a little cold weather on January 4 and 5th, temperatures stay above normal.
ECMWF model aka the Euro - shows a similar pattern - A little cold January 4th and 5th, then temperatures above normal.
I wrote in a previous post that I see a weather pattern change after January 17th.
Here is a little recap..
We are in a very strong El-Nino Phase and I do see a change in 2016.
Read more here on El-Nino
- http://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/el-nino-la-nina-enso
El-Nino is the warming of the Pacific Ocean and it
can impact the weather patterns in the United States - Long Island is thousands
of miles away from the warm ocean source that one little shift and we can get a
major Nor'easter and heavy snow. As of the
End of November El-Nino was in a very strong warm phase - hence why the East
Coast has been warm.
So does the Weather Change -- In 2016El-Nino is forecast to weaken
in 2016, which would lead to a change in the weather pattern. That is when we can get our cold and snow. Does this big shift happen in January or Late February?
The later it happens the less cold and snow.
As of now, I see that happening towards Mid January - I see some storms around
17th to 25th, February 4 to 10th and February 22 to 28th. I see some very cold weather but not prolonged as last year. From December to March, I think our temperatures will be Near Normal to above normal and Snowfall near Normal or Below. I would plan for 15 to 25 inches. The problem is, one Nor'easter can drop 10 to 20 inches and mess up the seasonal snow forecast. One thing to watch, if El Nino weakens very fast in Late February into March - Spring maybe delayed and we could hold onto chilly weather through April.Below are typical Snow Totals for winter.
I hope you have a blessed and amazing New year. best wishes
Rich Hoffman -
UPDATE BY METEOROLOGIST MATT HAMMER 11AM JANUARY 2ND 2016
Morning sunshine in Riverhead...
More morning cloud cover across western Long Island, including here at the studios in Woodbury...1 of 2
I hope 2016 is treating you all well so far and I wish everyone nothing, but the best throughout this new year!
With that said, who's ready for a more prolonged period of colder temperatures across Long Island? We also have a shot of very cold air for part of the upcoming week, but more on that a bit farther down the page...
This morning we started off with lows mostly around the low 30's. The coldest spot being near Westhampton - 24 degrees!
It's actually going to "feel" cold throughout the entire day today. We'll have afternoon highs around 41 degrees, but it is also quite breezy and will feel colder than that. So, the heavier coat is a better bet today. Below you can see the mid-morning wind chill values and around where the wind gusts will be today. These wind chills will be in the low to mid 30's through this afternoon...
Take a look at the US Satellite and Radar map below. Overall, much of the country is seeing dry weather today with just a few exceptions.
So, today across Long Island - here's what we can expect. Remember, it will feel cold with those wind chills!
Now, if you think it feels cold today, get ready for a rude awakening early next week! We won't have any storms or snow to worry about, but we will have some bitterly cold winter air for Monday and Tuesday, especially when you factor in the wind. We saw those record setting 60's at times in December (around 20 degrees or so ABOVE average) to seeing upper twenties and low 30's for highs (around 10 degrees BELOW average) for Monday and Tuesday.
Below you'll find what the forecast "wind chill" values are expected to be early Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon. Just click the arrow on the right of the photo to advance the slideshow...
What it will feel like Tuesday morning...
What it will feel like Tuesday afternoon...1 of 2
As you saw above, it will feel no warmer than the TEENS throughout the day on Tuesday. On the seven day forecast below, notice that we do see rebounding temperatures into the forties for the middle to end of the week. Our next chance for any rain looks to be late Friday into Saturday.Have a great weekend!
- Matt
-
Update by Meteorologist Rich Hoffman Noon on January 6th 2016
After the past 36 hours we had very cold below normal temperatures, we are going to warm up for the weekend. Tracking a few storms in the next 10 days. The first storm will be this weekend and since the storm will track west of Long Island, it will allow a southerly wind to bring in warm tropical air.TODAY: Lots
of sunshine. Highs near 40. Winds West-Southwest 5 to 10 mph. Sunset: 4:41pm.
TONIGHT:
Mostly Clear and Cold. Winds West-Southwest 5 to 10 mph. Lows 16 to 23.TOMORROW:
Mostly Sunny to a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. A bit warmer. Winds
West-Northwest 5 to 10 mph. Highs near 43. Overnight will be partly cloudy.
Lows 30 to 35.FRIDAY:
Morning Sunshine with afternoon Clouds. Highs near 42. Overnight will be cloudy
with a chance of showers. Lows 35 to 40.SATURDAY:
Mostly Cloudy skies with scattered showers. Highs near 46. Not a washout - a few spotty showers and drizzle. Mild conditions.WEATHER MAPS ARE COURTESY OF http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Overnight will be
cloudy with showers. Breezy. Lows 40 to 45.SUNDAY:
Cloudy Skies. Breezy. Winds Southeast to South 15 to 25, gusts to 30 mph.
Periods of rain, some will be heavy at times. Rain totals .75" to 1.25'
possible. Highs 52 to 57. Record high is 56 set in 2000.
You can see the warm weather over Long Island - 50s to near 60.
Below map shows the track of the storm - Expect gusty winds and warm air over Long Island on Sunday. Some of the rain will be heavy at times and winds could gust to 30 mph.
Overnight will be
mostly cloudy with lows 37 to 42.MONDAY: Sun
and Clouds. Temperatures in the 40s in the morning dropping to the 30s by
afternoon. Overnight will be partly to mostly cloudy. A few scattered rain
showers changing to snow showers 7pm to 2am. Lows 25 to 30.TUESDAY:
Sun and Clouds. Breezy and Cold. Highs 32 to 37.
The cold air returns to the Northeast and Long Island. Highs in the 30s. Normal Average High is 39.
Below weather map shows dry conditions Tuesday afternoon. Look towards North and South Carolina - a coastal storm is trying to develop. See the Red L over the Great Lakes - will that storm combine with the low to the south and bring us rain and snow on Wednesday???
Tuesday Night will have increasing clouds. Lows in the 20s.
Wednesday ; TRACKING A COASTAL STORM --
The below weather map is from the Jan 6th 12z GFS model, only one model that I am looking at for right now. The storm can track up the coast or the energy over the Great Lakes can steer the storm out to sea. The new ECMWF model comes out after 2pm. WEATHER MAPS ARE COURTESY OF http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/The long range forecast pattern has been wishy washy so right now confidence is low. If the storm is still there Saturday I will feel much better. So far this is our best shot as snow accumulation - Since the storm is still more than 168 hours away, a lot of things can happen and you have to watch the CHANGING Forecast - again this storm can go out to sea and we could be left with sun and clouds and have highs 35 to 40.
-
Update at Noon January 8th by Meteorologist Rich Hoffman
Tracking two storms in our 7 Day forecast - One will bring warm, wet and windy conditions. The second will bring cold weather and the threat our some snow accumulations. Much colder weather on the way. Last shot of cold air was around for 2 days. This time it looks like we could have 5 to 7 days of below normal temperatures.
TONIGHT: Cloudy Skies. Spotty Shower and Drizzle. Patchy Fog. Winds Northeast 5 to 10
TOMORROW: Cloudy Skies. Spotty Shower and Drizzle. Patchy Fog. Winds Northeast 5 to 10
mph. Lows near 37.mph. Highs near 48. Overnight will be cloudy with scattered showers. Lows
42-47.SUNDAY: Cloudy Skies. Periods of Rain. Some rain will be heavy at times. .75" to
1.50" of rain possible. Windy. Winds South-Southeast 10 to 20 mph with
gusts to 40 mph. Highs 53 to 60. Record High is 56 set in 2000.
The Below weather maps show the Surface map and the storm on Sunday. You can see the storm, Temperatures and Rain Totals.Weather Maps from - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers ending. Turning Colder. Lows near 37.
MONDAY: A mix of sun and clouds. Breezy and Cold. Highs near 38.MONDAY NIGHT: Clear and cold. Lows near 25.
TUESDAY:Mostly Sunny. Highs near 37. Normal Average High is 39.TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with chance of flurries or snow showers. Lows near 26.
An Alberta Clipper will move through the Great Lakes and will try and redevelop East of Long Island - It looks like the storm intensifies too far east for Long Island to get a moderate snowfall. Right now looks like a minor event- Any change in track and energy we will have to adjust snow forecast. Watch Closely.
WEDNESDAY:TRACKING A STORM. Partly Sunny. Snow showers. Minor Snow accumulation possible depending on track - Example maybe 1 to 3 inches. Breezy and Cold. Highs near 38.Wind Chills in the 20s.Look at the Cold air behind Wednesday's Storm.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22 to 27.
THURSDAY: Partly Sunny. Breezy and Cold. Highs 33 to 38.
-
Update at 2PM January 10th by Meteorologist Matt Hammer
1 of 2
It's been a rough Sunday across Long Island weather-wise, especially for some of our coastal communities where coastal flooding reached moderate levels and at one point during this morning's high tide cycle, close to major levels near Freeport. Best of luck to all of those who have to deal with these coastal flooding issues once again today...
Elsewhere across LI we've had flash flooding and strong gusty winds today as well as record setting temperatures!
We're just seeing scattered showers for the rest of today into early this evening.
Rain totals so far have ranged from around one to two inches island-wide...
Check out today's top wind gusts too...60 MPH at Islip. We did also have an earlier fast-moving severe thunderstorm that was capable of wind gusts higher than 60 mph...
Our high temperature today at Islip MacArthur Airport reached 60 degrees. That broke a previous record of 56 set back in 2000!
So by later this evening the last of the showers are exiting around 8PM. That gives way to clearing skies as you can see on the futurecast below. Just click the right arrow to advance to the second image showing a look at Monday morning...
Temps by 10PM Sunday falling quickly through the 40's...
Wake-up temps Monday morning will be around freezing, but with clear skies and dry conditions!1 of 2
We see the chance for a rain or snow shower towards later Tuesday, then a better chance for a few flurries or snow showers overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will not be a major storm. At worst, we're looking at a trace to a coating of snow. We'll keep an eye on that chance over the next couple of days for you of course.
I hope you have a good end to the weekend after today's so-far crazy weather at times!
- Matt
-
Update By Meteorologist Rich Hoffman 630am January 13th 2016
Temperatures go up and down in the 7 day forecast – Cold today, warmer Friday and Saturday
Storm on Saturday looks to be rain with the warm air over Long Island. Some snow for the ski areas but it will be cold enough through the 7 day forecast where then can make snow.
and Cold with temperatures below normal Sunday through Tuesday.
For people thinking we will have no snow this winter, something to think of.. last year up to January 12th Islip only had 2.2 inches of snow. It looks like El Nino ( more information on El Nino - http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/forecast.html ) is weakening which will open the door to more cold and potential for storms and snow. Remember it can snow through April on Long Island – I know the non snow lovers will dislike me for saying that. Scroll down on this page to see my thoughts for the winter of 2015-16.
TODAY: WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1PM - GUSTS TO 45 MPH. Clear Skies and cold this morning. Temperatures in the 20s.and 15 degrees. Mostly Sunny Skies. Windy and Cold for this afternoon. Wind West-Northwest 20 to 25 gusting to 45 mph. Highs near 32. Feels liketemperatures in the teens. Sunset: 4:47pm. Normal Average High is 38.
TONIGHT: Partly Cloudy. Breezy and Cold. Winds West 5 to 15 mph. Lows near 19. Feel Like Temperatures will range from 10 to 15 degrees. Normal Average Low is 23.TOMORROW: Partly Sunny to a Mix of Sun and Clouds. A few morning flurries. Winds West 10 to 20 mph. Highs near 38. Wind Chills in the 20s. Overnight will be Partly to Mostly Cloudy.Chance for flurries. Lows 25 to 30.FRIDAY: Mostly Cloudy Skies. Mild. Highs near 44. Overnight will be Mostly Cloudy with showers
SATURDAY: TRACKING A COASTAL STORM. Cloudy skies with Periods of Rain. Some snow may mix with rain towards late afternoon. Windy. Winds East-Northeast Shifting to the
towards morning. Lows 35 to 40.West-Northwest 10 to 20 gusting to 35 mph. Highs near 44. Minor Coastal Flooding possible during high tides. Below Weather Maps are from Weatherbell.com and are the GFS Model
7am Saturday Temps
The Coastal Storm will be very strong but missing a few things for it to be a snow storm. 1. No cold air in place - the Red L North of Buffalo, NY will help bring warm air over Long Island - for cold and snow we need High pressure and winds from the North - 2. Storm is progressive - moving quickly to the Northeast.
7am Saturday Surface Map
1pm Saturday Temperatures Notice not a lot of cold airSATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A few rain or snow showers. Lows 32 to 35.
1pm Saturday - Gusty winds as storm moves away - Rain may mix with some snow in late afternoon
SUNDAY: Partly Sunny.Breezy and Cold. Chance of a snow shower. Highs near 36.SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Breezy and Cold. A few snow showers. Lows near 24.
1AM MONDAY TEMPS
NEED TO WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY VERY CLOSELY -- THE STORM MAY MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IF THAT IS THE CASE WE COULD SEE OUR 1ST SNOW ACCUMULATION.
1AM MONDAY - STORM MOVES EAST OF LI Can bring some snow showers - NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY - STORM TRACK.MONDAY: MARTIN LUTHER KING JR. DAY. Sun and Clouds. Breezy and Cold. Some flurries. Highs near 32. Wind Chills in the 20s.
1pm Monday Temperatures - COLD.MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and cold. Lows 17 to 22.
TUESDAY: Sun and Clouds.Windy and Cold. Highs 27 to 32. Overnight will be mostly clear and cold with lows in the teens.
-
UPDATE BY METEOROLOGIST RICH HOFFMAN NOON FRIDAY JANUARY 15TH 2016
TONIGHT:
Cloudy Skies. Rain developing after midnight. Winds South-Southeast 5 to 10
mph. Area of Fog. Lows near 40.SATURDAY:
Cloudy skies with morning rain. Rain tapers off towards noon and break of
sunshine developing for late afternoon. Rain totals .25” to .75” Winds East-Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Highs near 48.
CATSKILLS COULD SEE SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly Cloudy. Winds Northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Lows 27 to 32. Wind Chills in the 20s.SUNDAY:
Partly Sunny. Winds West-Northwest 5 to 15 mph. Highs 36 to 40.
7AM SUNDAY MAP
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Some snow showers after midnight. Lows 20 to 25.STARTING ON MONDAY WILL WE HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ICE will form on local ponds and lakes. Remember you need the ice to be 4 inches thick, for it to be safe to walk or ice skate on. Be alert and be careful.
MONDAY:
Some morning flurries or snow showers. Partly Sunny. Breezy and Cold. Wind
Chills in the low 20s. Highs 27 to 30.
MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and
cold. Lows 15 to 20. Wind Chills near 10 degrees.TUESDAY:
Mostly Sunny. Cold. Highs 30 to 32. Overnight will be partly cloudy. Lows 15 to
20.WEDNESDAY:
Mostly Sunny. Highs near 31. Overnight will be partly cloudy. Lows 20 to 25.THURSDAY:
Mostly cloudy. Highs near 36. Lows near 24.
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS LONG ISLAND DRY FOR THE THE WEEK - AND COLD!!!!
-
Potential Winter Storm Saturday
Storm Track PossibilitiesOK ... everyone is asking about the possibility of snow on Saturday, so here is my take. First .. 4 days out is too soon to predict amounts. We are not even sure exactly where the storm is headed. We do know it will move up the coast and current forecasts run it close enough to give us heavy snow. But, there is a chance that high pressure to the north could suppress it a bit south and lower snow amounts. This is the map for Friday afternoon showing two possible paths. Blue is snow ..pink mixed and green rain. Keep checking longisland.news12.com/weather and we will have the latest forecast available.
-
Update By Meteorologist Rich Hoffman at 1030am Wednesday Jan 20th.
Current watches and warnings --
Blizzard Watches posted for Washington, DC area -
For local watches and warnings - Click Here - http://www.weather.gov/okx/
Watch - A watch is generally issued in the 24 to 72 hour forecast
time frame when the risk of a hazardous winter weather event has
increased (50 to 80% certainty that warning thresholds will be met). It
is intended to provide enough lead time so those who need to set their
plans in motion can do so. A watch is issued using the WSW Winter
Weather Message product and will appear as a headline in some text
products such as the Zone Forecast. It will change the color, as shown
in the table below, of the counties on the NWS front page map according
to what type of watch has been issued.
Description
Watch Type
Conditions are favorable for a blizzard event in the next 24 to
72 hours. Sustained wind or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35
mph will accompany falling and/or blowing snow to frequently reduce
visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three or more hours. It Can with snowfall less than 6 inches - It Doesn't have to be a major snowfall.
Blizzard Watch
Conditions are favorable for a lake effect snow event to meet or
exceed local lake effect snow warning criteria in the next 24 to 72
hours. Widespread or localized lake induced snow squalls or heavy snow
showers which produce snowfall accumulation to 7 or more inches in 12
hours or less. Lake effect snow usually develops in narrow bands and
impacts a limited area within a county or forecast zone. Use "mid-point"
of snowfall range to trigger a watch (i.e 5 to 8 inches of snow =
watch).
Lake Effect Snow Watch
Conditions are favorable for wind chill temperatures to meet or
exceed local wind chill warning criteria in the next 24 to 72 hours.
Wind chill temperatures may reach or exceed -25°F.
Wind Chill Watch
Conditions are favorable for a winter storm event (heavy sleet,
heavy snow, ice storm, heavy snow and blowing snow or a combination of
events) to meet or exceed local winter storm warning criteria in the
next 24 to 72 hours. Criteria for snow is 7 inches or more in 12 hours
or less; or 9 inches or more in 24 hours covering at least 50 percent of
the zone or encompassing most of the population. Use "mid-point" of
snowfall range to trigger a watch (i.e 5 to 8 inches of snow = watch).
Criteria for ice is 1/2 inch or more over at least 50 percent of the
zone or encompassing most of the population.
Winter Storm Watch
Warning/Advisory - These products are issued when a
hazardous winter weather event is occurring, is imminent, or has a very
high probability of occurrence (generally greater than 80%). A warning
is used for conditions posing a threat to life or property. An advisory
is for less serious conditions that cause significant inconvenience and,
if caution is not exercised, could lead to situations that may threaten
life and/or property. Warnings and advisories are issued using the WSW
Winter Weather Message product and will appear as a headline in some
text products such as the Zone Forecast. It will change the color, as
shown in the table below, of the counties on the NWS front page map
according to what type of warning/advisory has been issued.
Description
Warning Type
Blizzard event is imminent or expected in the next 12 to 36
hours. Sustained wind or frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph
will accompany falling and/or blowing snow to frequently reduce
visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three or more hours.
Blizzard WarningAn ice storm event is expected to meet or
exceed local ice storm warning criteria in the next 12 to 36 hours.
Criteria for ice is 1/2 inch or more over at least 50 percent of the
zone or encompassing most of the population.Ice Storm Warning
A lake effect snow event is expected to meet or exceed local
lake effect snow warning criteria in the next 12 to 36 hours. Widespread
or localized lake induced snow squalls or heavy snow showers which
produce snowfall accumulation to 7 or more inches in 12 hours or less.
Lake effect snow usually develops in narrow bands and impacts a limited
area within a county or forecast zone. Use "mid-point" of snowfall range
to trigger warning (i.e 5 to 8 inches of snow = warning).
Lake Effect Snow Warning
Wind chill temperatures are expected to meet or exceed local
wind chill warning criteria in the next 12 to 36 hours. Wind chill
temperatures may reach or exceed -25°F.
Wind Chill Warning A winter storm event (heavy sleet, heavy snow, ice
storm, heavy snow and blowing snow or a combination of events) is
expected to meet or exceed local winter storm warning criteria in
the next 12 to 36 hours. Criteria for snow is 6 inches or more in
12 hours or less; or 8 inches or more in 24 hours covering at least
50 percent of the zone or encompassing most of the population. Use
"mid-point" of snowfall range to trigger warning (i.e 5
to 8 inches of snow = warning). Criteria for ice is 1/2 inch or more
over at least 50 percent of the zone or encompassing most of the population.
Winter Storm Warning
Description
Advisory Type A winter storm event (sleet, snow, freezing rain, snow
and blowing snow, or a combination of events) is expected to meet
or exceed local winter weather advisory criteria in the next 12 to
36 hours but stay below warning criteria. Criteria for snow is 3inches
or more in 12 hours or less covering at least 50 percent of the zone
or encompassing most of the population. Use "mid-point"
of snowfall range to trigger advisory (i.e 2 to 5 inches of snow =
advisory). Criteria for ice is any ice accumulation less than 1/2
inch over at least 50 percent of the zone or encompassing most of
the population. Winter Weather Advisory can also be issued for black
ice. This is optional.
Winter Weather Advisory
Any accumulation of freezing rain is expected in the next 12 to
36 hours (but will remain below 1/2 inch) for at least 50 percent of the
zone or encompassing most of the population.
Freezing Rain Advisory
A lake effect snow event is expected to to meet or exceed local
lake effect snow advisory criteria in the next 12 to 36 hours.Widespread
or localized lake induced snow squalls or heavy snow showers which
produce snowfall accumulating to 4 or more inches in 12 hours or less,
but remain less than 7 inches. Lake effect snow usually develops in
narrow bands and impacts a limited area within a county or forecast
zone. Use "mid-point" of snowfall range to trigger advisory (i.e 2 to 5
inches of snow = advisory).
Lake Effect Snow Advisory
Wind chill temperatures are expected to meet or exceed local
wind chill advisory criteria in the next 12 to 36 hours. Wind chill
temperatures may reach or exceed -15°F.
Wind Chill Advisory
-
-
FORECAST UPDATE 9PM WEDNESDAY JANUARY 20TH BY METEOROLOGIST RICH HOFFMAN
TRACKING MAJOR STORM –What we know –
1. Major
storm will hit east coast – 1 to 2 feet of snow with some areas 24 –
30” – Mostly South of Long Island. Huge question how far north does that heavy snow go? Long Island
or Central New Jersey
Below map snow totals through 7pm Saturday -- more amounts into Sunday Morning
2. Timing
– right now light snow between 6am Saturday to 10am Saturday -- Worst part of storm 5pm Saturday to 4am Sunday. Details
on track could change timing and amounts.3. Strong winds on Saturday into Sunday morning 40 to 55 mph – power outages and coastal flooding
4. Coastal
flooding – full moon Saturday – tides 2 to 3 feet above normal, waves 10
to 15 feet, moderate to major coastal flooding and beach erosion during
high tides.Water will flood streets and possibly reach the 1st floor of some buildings on the North Shore and South Shore.Below is a storm surge map - We have a storm, plus full moon - be alert and prepared for flooding, some people will not be able to leave their homes due to high water levels.
TONIGHT: Mostly Cloudy skies. Chance of flurries or snow shower towards Thursday morning. Winds Northwest 5 to 10 mph. Lows near 25. Sunrise: 7:11am.
THURSDAY:
AM Clouds giving way to Mostly Sunny skies. Breezy and Cold. Winds Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Highs near
34, Wind Chills Between 15 and 25 degrees. Overnight will be partly
cloudy. Lows 18 to 23.FRIDAY:
Increasing Clouds. Cloudy skies by late afternoon. Highs near 34.
Overnight will be cloudy with light snow developing towards morning. Lows near 27.SATURDAY:
TRACKING MAJOR NOR'EASTER. Storm Track still in question which will
play a role in snow totals. Prepare for more than 6 inches, more than one foot is possible. Storm more than 48 hours away EXPECT details to change. . We will
coastal flooding and Beach Erosion. Cloudy Skies with Periods of snow,
heavy at times. Blizzard conditions possible. Blowing and drifting snow. Travel will be dangerous Saturday evening. Some rain at times, East End and South Shore. Strong
Winds East-Northeast 20 to 35 mph, gusts to 55 mph. Tides 2 to 3 feet
above normal and Waves 10 to 15 feet. Temperatures 32 to 36. Wind Chills
in the teens. Blowing and Drifting snow. Overnight stormy conditions
will continue with Snow, Strong winds and Coastal Flooding. Blizzard conditions possible. Temperatures
in the 20s. Power Outages likely.SUNDAY:
TRACKING NOR'EASTER. Morning snow tapers off and we will have sun and
clouds for the afternoon. Strong winds North-Northeast 15 to 25 mph with
gusts 40 to 50 mph. Blowing and Drifting snow. Temperatures 32 to 37.
Wind Chills in the teens. Overnight will be partly cloudy. Lows 22 to
27.MONDAY: Sun and Clouds. Highs near 37. Overnight will be partly cloudy. Lows near 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly Cloudy with chance of showers late in the day. Highs near 43. Overnight will be mostly cloudy. Lows 27 to 32.
Rich Hoffman
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM Seal #190)
News12 Morning & Afternoon Meteorologist -
Weekend Nor'easter .... Bill Korbel
The storm is right on track and time. Right now I am thinking around 6 inches for LI. It is unlikely to be much less but it could be more if the storm tracks a bit farther north. Now it comes down the the details where 30 or 40 miles can make a huge difference in snowfall.
Here is the mid morning Saturday forecast with snow in blue and lines indicating the strong NE winds gusting over 40 mph
1 of 2
You can see how quickly snow falls off to the north and conversely increases just south of us.
Flooding will be a big problem if tides reach expected levels. -
9pm Thursday Jan 21st 2016 Updated by Meteorologist Rich Hoffman
1. Blizzard Watch: Posted for Strong winds
2. Coastal Flood Watch: Moderate to Major Coastal Flooding Tides 2 to 4 feet above normal with storm surge could put 2 feet of water in the streets. Be alert - Move the cars towards high tides.
3. Snowfall: 3 to 6 inches east end and 6 to maybe 12 inches over Western Nassau County - 6 inches will be a good average. Winds more than 40 mph will create blowing and drifting snow and poor visibility. It will be hard to measure snow - Some spots will have 2 inches and others could be near 1 foot with snow drifts. IF STORM TRACK IS SOUTH EXPECT LESS SNOW, A SHIFT NORTH IN STORM TRACK WILL LEAD TO MORE SNOW.
4. Start time 6am to 10am on Saturday - Strong winds, heavy snow possible 3pm to 9pm. Bad travel conditions.
5. expect some more forecast changes before and during the snow is fall.
SATURDAY: BLIZZARD WATCH 6AM SAT TO 1PM SUN. Snow
Starts 6am to 10am. Cloudy skies. Strong winds and coastal flooding. Moderate
to Major coastal flooding. Winds East-Northeast 20 to 30 mph gusts to 50. Tides
2 to 4 feet above normal. Water will be in the streets and some people may not
be able to get out of their homes. Beach Erosion. Waves 10 to 15 feet. Periods
of snow, mixing with sleet and rain on the south shore and east end.
Temperatures 32 to 36. Strong winds, heavy snow possible 3pm to 9pm. Bad travel conditions.
YOU WILL WANT TO MOVE YOUR CARS - POSSIBLE FLOODING OF CRAWL SPACES - SOME AREAS YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO LEAVE YOUR HOUSE DURING HIGH TIDE WITH 2 FEET OF WATER IN THE STREET.
LOOK AT THE STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.BELOW MAP IS THE STORM DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST- SNOW STARTING TO BEGIN - SOME SNOW AND SLEET AND RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
7AM SATURDAY MORNING
Watch the movement of the storm from 7am to 7pm - Depending on this track - we could either get one foot of snow or 2 to 4 inches of snow. Below map is from 7PM Saturday. at 7pm, we could have major flooding, heavy snow, strong winds along with power outages. It all depends on the track of the storm.
The below snowfall maps are from the National Weather ServiceFrom the National Weather Service - I do believe the more south and west you go the higher snowfall totals you will have.
-
UPDATE 6AM FRIDAY JANUARY 22ND BY METEOROLIOGIST RICH HOFFMAN
-START TIME 4AM TO 10AM SATURDAY
-WORST PART OF STORM - 2PM TO 11PM SATURDAY- BLOWING & DRIFTING SNOW POOR VISIBILITY - TRAVEL NOT RECOMMENDED
-SNOW ENDS 5AM TO 9AM SUNDAY
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDES - TIDES 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. 2 FEET OF WATER IN THE STREETS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS TIDE TIMES SATRUDAY NIGHT 7PM TO MIDNIGHT.
STRONG WINDS - GUSTS 35 TO 50 MPH - POWER OUTAGES LIKELY - BEACH EROSION
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW - POWER OUTAGES - HEAVY SNOW
-
-
Huge Snow Storm Headed Our Way
Huge Snow Storm Headed Our Way. The center is still over the Carolinas but already snow has reached into southern NJ. First flakes here around midnight. Heavier and steadier snow by 4 or 5 am. Blizzard conditions Saturday with heavy wind-driven snow.
A foot of snow for much of the Island but amounts will vary greatly from place to place
Very strong winds .... sustained 30-40 mph with some higher gusts
Widespread moderate to major flooding possible at high tide Saturday evening. Slightly lower tides in the morning cycle -
Weather update from Rich Hoffman - So what changed -
My big concern is still beach erosion - coastal flooding and power outages over the actually snow amounts. We have seen big snows before - but the power of water can do many damaging things.
1. A little more QPF - or precipitation
Look at the difference - higher number means more snow - this is why are totals have gone upward. Look at Southwest Nassau County Compared to Port Jefferson area - That could be a difference of 6 inches.We could see higher amounts in Southwest Nassau county and Southwest Suffolk county. Yes Chance for southern areas of Suffolk county can see more than 15". Blowing and drifting snow will make it hard to measure snowfall.
2. TIMING HAS CHANGED..
Start time flurries or light snow towards Midnight - Steady snow between 1am and 5am.
1 - 3 inches of snow by 7am. 5 to 8 inches during the day - Travel not recommended during Saturday. Snow will start to taper off early Sunday morning ( midnight to 3am). Sunshine returns by late morning on Sunday but we will have blowing and drifting snow.
3. FLOODING: a major concern for High tide in the morning and evening plus into Sunday morning. Tides 3 to 4 feet above normal - Winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph..
4. Power outages - 8 to 15 inches of snow, and some higher amounts along with strong winds 40 to 50 mph will bring down some power lines and also create dangerous travel conditions
BE alert and be safe. -
MAJOR STORM BATTERS THE EAST BY BILL KORBEL
MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING IN WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BY BILL KORBEL
Heavy snow, very strong winds up to 40 and 50 mph and widespread coastal flooding are all part of the storm moving up the coast. This map shows the expected position off the coast of Virginia midday Saturday.
The storm will produce some very big snowfalls. The red-pink colors show accumulation between 12 and 18 inches and notice western LI and NYC could be in that zone. Even heavier snow ..up to two feet from Central NJ to the Washington DC area. If you can, just stay home and watch the snow through a window. Travel will be very tough. And of course watch us live on News12LI -
update 530am by Meteorologist Rich Hoffman
More Snow on the way - higher snow totals - 1 to 2 feet.
Quick update - Moderate to Heavy snow through this evening with 1 to 2 inches per hour.
Snow totals 12 to 24 inches, yes some areas may have higher amounts. Highest totals as of now should be South Shore from Patchogue west to NYC.
Winds: Sustained 25 to 35 with gusts 45 to 55 mph. Dangerous Travel Conditions.
Coastal Flooding: tides 3 to 4 feet above average.
TODAY:Blizzard Conditions through tonight, Snow totals 12 to 24 inches. Snow, heavy at times. Strong gusty winds North-Northeast Sustained 25 to 35 with gusts to 55 mph. Dangerous Travel Conditions. Temperatures near 32 degrees wind chills in the teens. 4 to 8 to inches by 9am. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS. Coastal Flooding with tides 3 to 4 feet above normal. Be Alert for Rising Waters. 2 feet of water possible in Streets.
TONIGHTBlizzard warning trough 7am Sunday. Blizzard Conditions with blowing and drifting snow. Moderate to Heavy Snow through 9pm and then tapers through the overnight. Winds Northeast to North-Northwest 20 to 30 gusting to 45 mph. Temperatures in the 20s. Wind Chills between 10 and 15 degrees. Storm storm totals 12 to 24 inches. Highest amounts along the South Shore in Southwest Suffolk to Southwestern Nassau. Coastal Flooding with tides 3 to 4 feet above normal. Be Alert for Rising Waters.
SUNDAYMostly Sunny Skies. A little breezy. Some Blowing and Drifting snow. Winds Northwest 10 to 20 early dropping to 5 to 15 towards midday. Highs near 35. Coastal Flooding possible during High Tides. Overnight will be partly cloudy skies. Lows in the teens to low 20s.
-
Freeport already flooding -
Flooding gauges—
watch the gauges
BELOW IMAGE AS OF 6:45AM
Freeport - http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=okx&gage=frpn6
–Lindenhurst - http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=okx&gage=lndn6
Reynolds channel - http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=okx&gage=reyn6
Kings point - http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=okx&gage=kptn6http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=okx
– main page
FULL MOON AND STORM LEADING TO TIDES 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
-
Update as of 10am -- Most areas have 7 to 12 inches of snow , expect another 5 to 12 inches.
Snow totals as of 9:39am --Link to snow totals -- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/OKX/PNSOKX
Winds
10am weather conditions -- look at the strong winds -- blowing and drifting snow
-
-
Blizzard 2016 By Bill Korbel 6:30 pm
Still lots of moderate to heavy snow but intensity should taper off after 9pm. Already 21 inches at MacArthur Airport
Freeport tides could be 3 feet above normal again this evening
Flooding likely at high tide before midnight on north shore. Tides up to 4 feet above normal -
Recap snow totals -- update at 7am January 25th by meteorologist Rich Hoffman
Link to totals from the National Weather Service - http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Most of Long Island had 18 to 24 inches --Lower amounts East of the William Floyd Parkway -
From Port Jefferson South to Patchogue then West to NYC snow amount 20 to 25 inches with a few spots 25 to 30 inches.
-
730am Update Monday January 25th 2016 by Meteorologist Rich Hoffman
Scroll down to see blizzard snow totalsTODAY: WATCH OUT FOR ICY ROADS, PARKING LOTS AND SIDE WALKS - Use
TONIGHT: Watch for Icy Conditions. Partly Cloudy skies. Winds South-Southwest 5 to 10 mph. Lows 20 to 25. Temperatures rising into the 30s by morning.
caution driving and walking. Temperatures in the teens and 20s this morning.
Mostly Sunny skies with some late day clouds. Winds Northwest shifting to
Southwest 5 to 15 mph. Highs 35 to 38. Sunset: 5:02pm. Normal Average High is
38.Below is map for Tuesday evening - Clouds and threat of rain showers ahead of Cold Front.
Warm air moving over Long Island on Tuesday.
Map for Tuesday Jan 26th 7pm
Potential Forecast highs for Tuesday Jan 26thTOMORROW(TUESDAY) : Mostly Cloudy skies, breaks of sunshine. Chance of a late day shower. Warmer. Winds South-Southwest 5 to 15 mph. Highs 40 to 50 . Overnight will be Mostly Cloudy.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and Clouds. Highs 38 to 43. Overnight will be mostly clear lows 22 to 27. Watch for Black Ice.THURSDAY: Partly Sunny. Highs near 35. Overnight will be mostly cloudy with chance of snow showers.Lows near 23.
Chance of a few spotty showers. Lows near 27. Watch for Black Ice.
Watching a storm that looks like it will pass to the East Thursday night into Friday - Below are the ECMWF (euro) and GFS model.
Euro Forecast shows Storm off Shore - We will Watch closely.
GFS model for Early Friday morning Showing storm off shore.
TRACKING COASTAL STORM -- AS OF NOW LOOKS TO GOT OUT TO SEA.FRIDAY: Mostly Cloudy with some snow showers. Highs near 35. Overnight will be mostly cloudy. Lows near 26
SATURDAY: Partly Sunny. Highs 37 to 42. Overnight will be partly cloudy. Lows 20 to 25.SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs near 41. Lows near 27.
-
UPDATE BY METEOROLOGIST RICH HOFFMAN JANUARY 28TH 1PM
TONIGHT: Increasing Clouds. Winds West-Northwest around 5 mph. Lows near 28.
FRIDAY: Mostly Cloudy skies, some breaks of sunshine. Some scattered rain and snow showers. A dusting to 3 tenths possible. Winds West-Northwest 10 to 20 with gusts to 30 mph. OVERNIGHT: Partly Cloudy with lows 22 to 27.
SATURDAY: Sun and Clouds. Breezy a little chilly. Highs 35 to 40. OVERNIGHT: Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy skies. Lows around 30.
SUNDAY: Partly Sunny. Warmer. Highs 43 to 48. OVERNIGHT: Mostly Cloudy skies. Lows near 35.
MONDAY: Mostly Cloudy skies. A few showers. Highs 47 to 52. OVERNIGHT: Mostly Cloudy skies. Lows 33 to 38.
TUESDAY: GROUNDHOG DAY: A shadow means 6 more weeks of winter. I think there will be sunshine and a shadow. Partly Sunny skies. Highs 47 to 52.TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly Cloudy with lows near 40.
WEDNESDAY: Warm, Wet and Windy. Cloudy skies. Periods of rain. Gusty winds. Highs 50 to 55. OVERNIGHT: Cloudy with scattered showers. Windy. Lows near 38.
-
update 8pm January 28th 8pm
Lt. Col. Tom Crosson, USAF
Defense Press Officer
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs
1400 Defense Pentagon (2D961), Washington, DC 20301-1400
Flight test likely cause of sonic boom
Aircraft from Naval Test Wing Atlantic were conducting routine flight
testing in the Atlantic Test Ranges this afternoon that included
activities which may have resulted in sonic booms. The test wing is
critical to the safe test and evaluation of all types of Navy and Marine
Corps aircraft in service and in development and is primarily based out
of Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Md. Other military aircraft,
including both Navy and Air Force, also frequently use the ranges for
testing and training.
An F-35C from Naval Air Station Patuxent River, MD was conducting
supersonic testing in a cleared military flight area off the east coast
earlier today. An F/A-18 aircraft accompanied the F-35C during the
test.
As with all flight operations, the Navy takes precautions to lessen the
impact of testing and training activities on the community. Military
aircraft routinely conduct supersonic flights offshore in an area called
the Test Track, which parallels the entire coast of the Delmarva
Peninsula. Test aircraft from the naval air station execute supersonic
flights almost daily in the test track, and most of these sonic booms
are never felt on land. However, under certain atmospheric conditions
there is an increased potential to hear the sound.
There is a toll-free Noise Disturbance Hotline for people that have
questions about operations at NAS Patuxent River. The hotline is staffed
by a station representative Monday through Friday during normal
business hours. After hours and on weekends, the hotline is transferred
to a recording in which callers are instructed to leave their name,
contact information, and description and location of the disturbance.
A representative from NAS Patuxent River begins investigating reported
noise events within one business day and follows up with callers as soon
as possible. Noise Disturbance Hotline: 1-866-819-9028 (Recorded line). -
WEATHER UPDATE FRIDAY 630AM JANUARY 30TH BY METEOROLOGIST RICH HOFFMAN
A few rain and snow
showers this afternoon. Temperatures will be above normal the next 7 days.
January 2016 will end up with above normal TEMPERATURES and above normal PRECIPITATION.TODAY: Mostly Cloudy
skies. Scattered rain and snow showers this afternoon(Mainly between 1 and 6pm). A Coating to 3 tenths possible. Winds
West-Northwest 10 to 20 gusts to 30 mph. Highs near 39. Sunset: 5:07pm.
COATING TO 3 TENTHS - VERY LIGHT IF ANY ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT: Partly Cloudy. Breezy and Colder. Winds Northwest 10 to
15 with gusts to 25 mph. Lows near 25.
TOMORROW(SATURDAY): Partly Sunny. Breezy and Cold. Winds North to Southwest
5 to 15 mph. Highs near 38.SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly Cloudy Skies. Lows near 30.
SUNDAY: Partly Sunny and Mild. Highs 45 to 48.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly
Cloudy skies. Lows near 35.MONDAY: Mostly Cloudy skies. A few showers. Highs near 47 to 52.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly Cloudy skies. Lows near 36.TUESDAY: FEB. 2ND GROUNDHOG DAY. 60% chance Holtsville Hal and
Malverne Mel see their shadow. Shadow means 6 more weeks of winter. No Shadow
means Spring is right around the corner. BTW, we spring forward Sunday March
13th. Forecast: Sun and Clouds. Mild. Highs 45 to 50.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly Cloudy
skies. Lows near 40.WEDNESDAY: Cloudy skies. Periods of Rain. Windy. Winds
South-Southwest 15 to 25 gusts to 35 mph. Highs 50 to 55. OVERNIGHT: Cloudy
skies and Showers early giving way to Partly Cloudy skies towards morning. Lows
35 to 40.THURSDAY: Sun and Clouds. Breezy and Colder. Highs 37 to 42.
OVERNIGHT: Partly Cloudy skies. Cold. Lows 25 to 30.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND -- BEST WISHES RICH HOFFMAN -
WEATHER UPDATE BY METEOROLOGIST MATT HAMMER SUNDAY JANUARY 31ST AT 12:30PM
Sun, mixing with clouds in Woodbury...
Sunshine and a few clouds in Riverhead...1 of 2
Hopefully you are enjoying what's left of the weekend! We have another nice day today with warmer temperatures. In fact, take a look at the map below and you'll see that we're close to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday...NOTE: the map below does not indicate the CURRENT temperature, but rather the number of degrees warmer that it is now compared to this time yesterday. Afternoon highs will be around 49 degrees. Normal high = 39.
It will stay dry today and tonight, but tomorrow there is the chance for a couple of afternoon showers, otherwise mostly cloudy.
A better chance for steadier rain arrives on Wednesday. Wednesday will be the last day of these warmer temperatures for now, but it comes with some rain and wind. By the end of the week we're seeing high temps close to normal for this time of the year.
With Tuesday being "Groundhog Day" - which would you rather? Six more weeks of winter or an early Spring? Let me know!
Have a great day!- Matt Hammer
-
UPDATE BY METEOROLOGIST RICH HOFFMAN 1030AM FEBRUARY 2ND.
Holtsville Hal, Malverne Mel, Punxsutawney Phil and Staten Island Chuck all reported NO SHADOW - which means spring is right around the corner. It has felt like more spring than winter. Besides a few days of really cold weather temperatures have been well above normal.
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING STARTS IN 28 DAYS - ASTRONOMICAL SPRING STARTS in 46 days March 20, 12:30 A.M. EDT .......Daylight Saving Time Begins Sunday March 13th at 2am.TODAY: Mostly Sunny and Mild.. Winds North shifting to Southeast 5 to 10 mph. Highs 46-52. Sunset: 5:12pm.
TONIGHT: Increasing Clouds. Winds Southeast 5 to 10 mph. Lows near 37. Sunrise: 7:01am. Normal Average Low is 23.
TOMORROW: Cloudy skies. Windy. Rain developing towards afternoon. Heaviest Rain will be 4pm to 9pm. Chance of thunderstorms. Winds South-Southeast 10 to 20 gusts to 35 mph. Highs near 57.
Weather Below shows Storm bringing periods of rain, chance for thunderstorms and gusty winds. The cold air is locked away from Long Island.
OVERNIGHT: Cloudy skies with rain ending. Windy. Rain Totals .75" to 1.25". Lows 30 to 35.
THURSDAY: Morning clouds chance of showers before 9am. Partly Sunny in the afternoon. Mild. Highs 45 to 50. OVERNIGHT: Partly Cloudy. Cold. Lows 22 to 28.
FRIDAY: Sun and Clouds. Breezy. Highs near 39. OVERNIGHT: Clear and Cold. Lows 25 to 30.
SATURDAY: Mostly Sunny. Highs near 40. OVERNIGHT: Partly to Mostly cloudy. Lows near 30.
SUNDAY: Sun and Clouds. Highs 42 to 47. OVERNIGHT: Mostly Cloudy. Lows 25 to 30.
MONDAY: TRACKING A COASTAL STORM. Cloudy skies. Rain Developing. May start as some snow. Highs near 40.
-
UPDATE 930AM THURSDAY FEB. 4TH BY METEOROLOGIST RICH HOFFMAN
After temperatures in the 50s and 60s this week, Yes we can end the work week with snow. Still a question on how strong and how far west will the storm move.
Here is current forecast: Scroll Down to see snowfall totals from weather computer models.
TONIGHT: Tracking storm which looks to bring some snow accumulation into Friday morning. Light rain developing between 8pm and Midnight. Rain mixing with and changing to snow towards morning. Some brief moderate snow is possible. Winds North 5 to 15 mph. Lows 30 to 35. Slushy Snow Accumulations 1 to 3 inches Highest Amounts in Suffolk County. Any change in intensity or track of storm we could see some more or less snow. IF COLD AIR COMES CRASHING IN FASTER WE COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES.
Quick basics:
Start time: Rain 8pm to Midnight
Rain to Snow: Rain to snow in Nassau County Midnight to 3am, Suffolk County 1pm to 4am.
All Snow with some drizzle and a little rain 4am - 9am. Some moderate snow possible during morning rush hour.
Snow Ends: West to East: Snow ends Nassau County 8am to 10am, Western Suffolk County 8am to 11am , East End 10am to 1pm. Highest snow totals will be in Suffolk County.
Sunshine developing west to east after 11am
Weather maps below are for Thursday night into Friday Morning - you can see timeline of the event.
thursday 945pm
thursday 1149pm
4:54 friday
5:57am
659am friday
903am friday
4km Nam model
CANADIAN RGEM
WSI RPM MODEL totals
TOMORROW: Cloudy skies with Morning snow, may mix with rain and drizzle. Could be a sloppy morning rush hour. 1 to 3 inches of snow possible, highest amounts in Suffolk County. Sun and Clouds in the afternoon with highs around near 40. Windy. Winds North 10 to 20 some gusts to 25 mph. OVERNIGHT: Clear skies and cold. Lows 22 to 27.
SURFACE WEATHER MAP 7AM FRIDAY
SATURDAY: Mostly Sunny. Highs 40 to 45. OVERNIGHT: Partly Cloudy. Lows 25 to 30.
SUNDAY: Mostly Sunny Skies. Highs 40 to 45. OVERNIGHT: Partly Cloudy. Lows 23 to 28.
MONDAY: Partly Sunny to Mostly Cloudy. Highs 35 to 40. OVERNIGHT: Mostly Cloudy, chance of snow towards morning. Lows 25 to 30.
TUESDAY: TRACKING COASTAL STORM. Cloudy skies with rain and snow. Depending on track of snow, chance of moderate snowfall. Highs in the mid 30s. OVERNIGHT: Cloudy skies with snow showers. Lows 25 to 30.
WEDNESDAY: Clouds with chance of snow in the morning. Partly Sunny, breezy and cold for the afternoon. Highs 32 to 37. OVERNIGHT: Partly Cloudy and cold. Lows 20 to 25.
-
FRIDAY MORNING SNOW
Rain will change to snow starting around 2 am on the west end and 5 am on the east end. Snow will be steady through the morning commute and roads will become slippery. Temperatures slightly above freezing means there will be some melting at first. A slower moving storm could increase these amounts by and inch or two in some spots.
Current snow total projections. Heaviest expected in central Suffolk. Rain will change to snow after 2 am.
Winter Weather Advisory to the morning. Rain spreading across LI as of 6 pm -
UPDATE BY METEOROLOGIST MATT HAMMER at 11:00AM - SATURDAY FEB. 6TH 2016
As we go through our weekend, we have to keep watching the potential for more snow to start the week on Monday. However, until then, we are looking good! A mix of sun and clouds today with highs around 40 degrees. This will help with the snow melt, but by tonight, as lows dip back into the 20's, we'll have to watch out for refreezing and icy spots again.
High, thin clouds in Riverhead today...
A similar look of a mix of sun and clouds here in Woodbury...1 of 2
On Sunday, expect partly sunny skies and highs around 44 degrees. Now, you may be hearing about the potential for more snow next week. Here's what we know. There will be a coastal storm with the center of that storm southeast of Long Island. There is still a wide range of possibilities for this storm. As of now, the WORST CASE SCENARIO would be light snow overspreading Long Island early Monday morning with some gusty winds to 30-35 mph. A few of the computer models (EURO, GFS) continue to keep the storm far enough away on Monday to provide us with much, if any snow. You will want to stay tuned for the latest through tomorrow.
(Worst case scenario below)
Use the slideshow below to see the latest "potential projected snowfall totals" for the start of next week as of Saturday morning. NOTE: the "RPM" and "NAM" have snow Monday, while the "GFS" and "EURO" have only a few inches for TUE INTO WED. Different time frames...
"GFS" model as of Saturday morning = well offshore...
"EURO" model as of Saturday morning = well offshore...we need to see if this trends northwest or not...1 of 2
1 of 4
So, there is still a lot to iron out through tomorrow regarding our weather to start next week. There is definitely still the chance at some snow Monday through Wednesday - not snowing the entire time. Stay with us as we sort it all out for you through the weekend - and be safe on those icy spots again tonight!- Matt
-
UPDATE BY METEOROLOGIST MATT HAMMER AT 2:00PM - SUNDAY FEB. 7TH 2016
Increasing clouds here in Woodbury this afternoon...
Sunshine mixing with clouds moving in ahead of tomorrow's light snow...1 of 2
All eyes are on a developing coastal storm that will pass southeast of Long Island on Monday. Consensus is still for a "glancing blow" for Long Island with light snow and flurries developing around 6-8am Monday morning. You can see where the developing storm is to the south below:
Take a look at the futurecast slideshow below...hit the arrow to the right to move through the latest projections. The blue of course is the snow!
Light snow develops Monday morning around 6AM...
Periods of light to moderate snow islandwide at 8AM Monday...
Periods of snow continue early Monday afternoon...
Scattered snow showers 5PM Monday...
Flurries Monday night into Tuesday morning...1 of 5
Sustained winds 15-30 mph Monday morning...
So, let's break this down in two parts for you...
PART ONE: around 6AM Monday - Monday evening...
1-3" with some higher amounts likely the further East you go. We may have to adjust that 2-4" line slightly depending on how the storm track looks this evening. Please keep checking with News 12 and News12.com for the latest updates throughout the day...
PART TWO: Monday night through Tuesday night expect periods of light snow and flurries amounting to an additional 1 to 3 inches by late Tuesday night. Unlike our last storms, these totals happen over a long duration which will help keep the impacts minimal.
Back to the short term...for tonight - Cloudy skies and lows back in the upper 20's and low 30's. This means we will have to once again watch for some areas of black ice to develop. Winds pick up too. Flurries and light snow arrives Monday morning around sunrise...
Again, some light snow and flurries will remain with us through Tuesday night with light additional accumulations. We could still have a few lingering flurries Wednesday morning. After that it's dry, but EXTREMELY COLD as we head towards Valentines Day weekend!Have a great rest of your Sunday! Enjoy the super bowl if you're watching!
- Matt
-
UPDATE BY METEOROLOGIST MATT HAMMER at 5:00AM - MONDAY FEBRUARY 8th, 2016
Good morning!
WINTER STORM WARNING for Suffolk until 6PM
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for Nassau
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY - SEE GRAPHICS BELOW...
1 of 2
Expecting 2-4" in Nassau through 5pm and up to 4-8" in Suffolk with today's storm. Winds gusting to near 35 mph.
Expect light snow and flurries throughout tonight and into the day tomorrow.
Some additional accumulation possible from tonight through Tuesday night of 1-3"
MUCH COLDER air arrives late-week...
Full updates on News 12 and News12.com through the day! Be sure to share your snow photos and videos with us...be safe!
- Matt
-
UPDATE FEBRUARY 12TH AT NOON - BY METEOROLOGIST RICH HOFFMAN
Very Cold record setting low temperatures this weekend - Wind Chill Advisory posted 4pm Saturday to Noon Sunday. Temperatures warm late Monday into Tuesday as a storm approaches Long Island.
TONIGHT: Mostly Cloudy with some scattered snow showers or light snow. Dusting to 1 inch of snow accumulation possible. Lows around 15. Wind Chills 5 below to 5 above degrees.
SATURDAY: WIND CHILL ADVISORY 4PM TO NOON SUNDAY. Clouds and a few snow showers in the morning. Some minor snow accumulations. Breezy and Very Cold. Temperatures in the morning 15 to 20 degrees, dropping to 10 to 15 degrees by 4pm. Winds Northwest 20 to 40 mph. Wind Chills Zero to 15 below.
SATURDAY 6AM WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY 4PM WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY 4PM TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY 4AM WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT: Record Low before midnight for February 13th is 9 degrees set in 2015.Clear, windy and FRIGID. Lows 5 below to 5 above. Record Low for February 14th is 7 set in 2003. Islip has not been below zero since January 15th 1988. Wind Chills 15 to 20 below. Dangerously Cold Weather- bring Pets indoors. Pipes could burst, let water run. Dress in Layers. Check on Elderly.
COLD WEATHER SUNDAY - low 5 below to 5 above
Sunday 7am Temperatures
sunday morning wind chills
noon temperatures
SUNDAY: WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. Dangerously Cold Weather- bring Pets indoors. Pipes could burst. In the morning, Clear, windy and FRIGID conditions. Temperatures 5 below to 5 above. Islip has not been below zero since January 15th 1988. Wind Chills 15 to 20 below. Mostly Sunny Skies for the afternoon. Highs 13 to 18. Wind Chills Zero to 15 below.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly Clear skies. Lows zero to 10 above, Some locations in the Pine Barrens could be below zero. Wind Chills 10 below to 5 above. Record low is 3 set in 1994.
MONDAY: Cold in the morning with temperatures zero to 10. Morning sunshine giving way to late day clouds. Chance of snow towards evening. Highs near 33.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy skies with snow changing to rain. Some rain will be heavy at times. Breezy. Lows near 31, temperatures rising to 40 by morning.
STORM AS OF NOW WILL GO OVER OR TO WEST OF LONG ISLAND - This will allow warm air to move over long island. It will be warm, wet and windy.
TUESDAY: Cloudy skies with periods of rain. Some rain will be heavy at times. Windy. Highs 43 to 50.
rain, will be heavy at times - Chance of a thunderstorm. temperatures in the 40s to near 50
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy skies with showers. Lows near 38.
WEDNESDAY: Morning clouds, chance of showers. Sun and Clouds in the afternoon. Highs near 42.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly Cloudy. Lows near 32.
THURSDAY: Sun and Clouds. Colder. Highs near 34.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly Clear and cold. Lows near 22.
-
UPDATE FEBRUARY 13TH AT 12PM - BY METEOROLOGIST MATT HAMMER
Mostly cloudy skies with a few sun breaks in Riverhead...
A good mix of sun and clouds here in Woodbury...1 of 2
*DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS*It's the bitter blast of cold air we've been advertising all week now and it will certainly pack a punch! Wind chills this morning were already in the single digits and those "feels like" readings will drop considerably through the day and into tonight.
A Wind Chill Advisory lasts until 12PM Sunday for winds 20-40 mph and those wind chill readings as low as around -20 degrees overnight.
TODAY: Expect clouds with breaks of sunshine. There is the chance for a brief snow shower through the day. Bitterly cold with highs around 18 degrees in the morning. Temps will fall towards 10 degrees by this evening. Wind Chills: -5 to 5 degrees. Winds NW 20-40 mph. During this extremely cold weather, be sure to check tire pressure, bring any outdoor pets inside, keep a light drip from faucets to lessen the chance of pipes bursting and try to stay indoors as much as possible.
TONIGHT: WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES... Dangerously cold with air temperatures around 0 degrees and wind chills -15 to -20 below zero. Previous record low for tonight before midnight is 9 degrees set last year. Record low for Feb. 14 is 7 degrees set last in 2003. Islip has not seen below 0 temperatures since Jan. 15th 1988. Partly cloudy skies. Winds NW 15-35 mph. 
Later tonight, wind chill values will get into the "extremely to dangerously cold" category. It wouldn't take much longer than 10 minutes to get frostbite on exposed skin - be careful!
Use the arrows to the right of the slideshow below to see our chance for a few nearby flurries or a snow shower through this afternoon along with the temperatures at that time. Remember, wind chills will be much lower than that!
There could be a passing snow shower, especially towards the east end today. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds with falling temps...
Partly cloudy overnight with Sunday morning lows around 0 degrees! Again, wind chills = -15 to -20! Be safe and try to stay warm and indoors...
Not feeling a WHOLE lot better by late Sunday morning...still feeling like the single digits!1 of 3
Over the next seven days, other than the bitter cold this weekend, we are tracking a storm for Monday night into Tuesday that, as it looks right now, would start as a mix and change to a cold rain. We could see temperatures around 50 degrees by Tuesday afternoon. Then, dry for the end of the week with much more seasonable temps returning...
Be safe in this cold this weekend!
Please give me a follow and a 'like' on Facebook and Twitter so we can all better interact about Long Island weather - thanks!
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/MattHammer12
Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/MattHammer12
- Matt
-
UPDATE FEBRUARY 15TH AT 12PM - BY METEOROLOGIST MATT HAMMER
Cloudy skies with scattered flurries in Woodbury from this morning...
We've had some steadier morning snow showers in spots towards the East End...like here in Riverhead...1 of 2
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* 1PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
Good afternoon! After a frigid weekend with some record-setting low temperatures, we started off this President's Day with more of the same bitter cold...Check out today's morning lows below - we were just two degrees shy of tying a record low for the day at Islip.
We had some scattered light snow and flurries this morning, but the worst of today's weather starts this afternoon. Take a look at the futurecast images below. Snow transitions to a brief wintry mix and then freezing rain by this evening. That could make for some very icy roads this evening and into early tonight. Even when air temperatures just above the surface warm to above freezing, it will still take the ground a bit longer to warm up due to the extreme cold we've had the past several days. That's when we need to worry most about the freezing rain leading to a glaze of ice on area roads. It does not take much ice to create for very dangerous travel - be careful through this evening!
Freezing rain changes to plain rain by later tonight as temperatures warm into the 40's towards Tuesday morning...click the right arrow below to advance the images that depict all of this happening...
Light to moderate snow...light accumulations...slick roads...
Snow to mix to freezing rain...
Plain rain...
Rain will be scattered early Tuesday with some dry times...
A round of very heavy rain moves through Tuesday afternoon leading to localized flooding...highs in the 50's!1 of 5
In terms of snow accumulations before the changeover...Up to 2" with less south and east where the changeover is likely to happen more rapidly...
See below for a brief recap:
After this storm, we dry out on Wednesday with much more seasonable air returning. It will stay dry through Friday. Then, we have the chance for a few scattered showers to start the weekend on Saturday.
Have a great day and be safe on the roads if you have to travel this evening!
- Matt
-
UPDATE FEBRUARY 20TH AT 8:30AM - BY METEOROLOGIST MATT HAMMER
After a mainly cloudy start, clouds quickly gave way to sunshine this morning...Hopefully you're ready to enjoy some warmer temperatures this weekend! Take a look at our early morning low temperatures today. We started the day around where our normal daytime highs should be. Normal HIGH = 41 degrees.
The milder temperatures are in part thanks to a warmer wind out of the southwest between 10 and 20 miles per hour today.
For this afternoon, we'll have high temps well into the 50's! If we can get to 55 degrees at Islip MacArthur Airport that will be a new record and break the previous one of 54 set back in 1991. It will be a close call on that...we'll see sunshine and a few clouds mixing in this afternoon...
Then, tonight will be partly cloudy and cool with overnight lows once again only dropping to around our normal daytime highs...BOATERS: Just be aware that there is a small craft advisory for the Ocean today:
We do have to keep our eye on later Sunday night into early Monday morning. Yesterday it was looking like more of a snowy to wintry mix scenario for Long Island. Overnight, the computer guidance mostly shifted this SOUTH. So, will this stay south or will the computers flip flop back and forth on this? Right now, I'd lean towards the more south scenario and just a few nearby rain showers Sunday night and early Monday, but we will keep watching it closely just in case.
After our warmer weekend, temps drop to around 40 on Monday. Increasing sunshine for Monday afternoon. Mainly cloudy with a few sun breaks Tuesday. Mostly cloudy with a few showers on Wednesday and a better chance for a more soaking rain later Wednesday night and through Thursday. The exact timing on that heavier rain is subject to change over the next couple of days. By next Friday, much colder with highs back in the low 30's.
Have a great day!
- Matt
-
UPDATE FEBRUARY 29TH AT 9:00PM - BY METEOROLOGIST MATT HAMMER
As we round out meteorological winter and head into meteorological spring, we had quite the mild day today after a line of rain showers moved through. We got back into that sunshine and once we did, temperatures rose fast across Long Island. Take a look at today's high temperatures on the map below:
We actually set a new record leap day high at Islip MacArthur Airport just before 5pm! We hit 58 degrees then which broke the previous record for Feb. 29th previously set in 2004. If you were in Nassau County, you had temperatures in the low 60's today. Our normal, average high this time of the year is 43 degrees. However, some cooler air is on the way.
Satellite and radar will look like the above image throughout the overnight hours - nice and dry.
Heading to the bus stop in the morning? Check your school day forecast below:
We do have a dry day on the way for Tuesday, but there is some rain that will be back in the picture by Tuesday night. Click through the futurecast images below to see around when the rain arrives...
Dry Tuesday afternoon with sunshine and a few clouds...
Becoming cloudy with scattered showers arriving Tuesday night...
Periods of rain Wednesday morning with some embedded heavier downpours...
Rain and clouds exit during Wednesday afternoon...1 of 4
BOATERS: Here's a look at what conditions will be like on the ocean and sound tomorrow:
So, let's recap what's on the way. Overnight - partly cloudy and colder with lows in the 30's.
Tuesday starts dry, then cloudy with showers later Tuesday night.
Periods of rain, especially through Wednesday morning.
Over the next seven days, after those showers Wednesday morning, it turns colder for Thursday, but it will be dry. We are tracking a coastal storm for Friday. The computer models MAINLY keep this system offshore for right now, but if there is an adjustment to this then that could mean we would see more snow for Long Island. It's something we'll track closely this week.
Dry after that for the start of the weekend and then we could see a few snow showers by Sunday.
Have a great night!
- Matt
